Apophis T-7 Years: Knowledge Opportunities for the Science of Planetary Defense

May 11–12, 2022

 

Program

 

Times listed are Central Daylight Time (CDT).

Find your local time here.

 

Wednesday, May 11, 2022

9:00 a.m.

Session 1: Apophis is Coming! Orbit Dynamics of Apophis’ Close Flyby

10:30 a.m.

Session 2: Possible Consequences on Apophis for Earth’s Torques or Tidal Stress

12:00 p.m.

Session 3: Knowledge Opportunities for Earth-Based Assets

2:00 p.m.

Day 1: Informal Online Social Gathering and Discussion of Day 1 Topics

 

Thursday, May 12, 2022

9:00 a.m.

Session 4: Knowledge Opportunities for In Situ Missions Small and Large

12:30 p.m.

Session 5: Instrumentation and In Situ Characterization

2:00 p.m.

Session 6: Communicating the Apophis Science Opportunity

2:45 p.m.

Day 2: Informal Online Social Gathering and Discussion of Day 2 Topics

 

 

Wednesday, May 11, 2022

SESSION 1: APOPHIS IS COMING! ORBIT DYNAMICS OF APOPHIS’ CLOSE FLYBY

9:00 a.m.

All times are U.S. Central Daylight Time (CDT = GMT-5)

 

Opening Session, Welcome, and an Update on the Orbital Dynamics of Apophis’ 2029 Flyby.

 

Chairs:  Patrick Michel and Daniella DellaGiustina

 

Times

Authors (*Presenter)

Abstract Title and Summary

9:00 a.m.

DellaGiustina D.  de Leon J.  Michel P.  Moon H. K.   Tatsumi E.  Binzel R. P. *

Science Organizing Committee Welcome and Workshop Logistics

9:10 a.m.

Binzel R. P. *  DellaGiustina D.  de Leon J.  Michel P.  Moon H. K.  Tatsumi E.

The Science Case for Apophis 2029 at T-7 Years to Encounter [#2009]
The April 13, 2029 close Earth encounter by the large 340m asteroid (99942) Apophis presents a once-per-thousand year natural science opportunity. We outline the rationale for seizing this opportunity to benefit the science of planetary defense.

9:25 a.m.

Farnocchia D. *  Chesley S. R.  [INVITED]

Apophis Trajectory, Impact Hazard, and Sensitivity to Spacecraft Contact [#2007]
We review the current knowledge on the trajectory of Apophis for the 2029 flyby and the impact hazard. Given the scattering effect of the 2029 encounter, we analyze the sensitivity of the future trajectory of Apophis to spacecraft interaction.

9:45 a.m.

Fuentes-Muñoz O. *  Pedrós-Faura A.  Amato D.  Scheeres D. J.  McMahon J. W. 

On the Prediction of Keyholes by Propagation of the MOID [#2010]
In this work we study the variation of the MOID between encounters so that we can determine the keyholes that exist in the B-plane. We compare the different methods to propagate the orbits of asteroids between planetary close encounters.

10:00 a.m.

Do T. Q. *  Boley A. C.

Impact of Yarkovsky Effect Modification Due to 2029 Fly-by on the Close Approach Structure of 99942 Apophis [#2025]
Simulations of Apophis’ orbital trajectory over the next century, taking into account the possible changes in the strength of the Yarkovsky effect due to the Earth-Apophis gravitational interaction during the 2029 close approach.

Topical Poster

Wlodarczyk I. *

Orbital Evolution of the Asteroid 99942 Apophis (2004 MN4) [#2002]
We present orbit and orbital evolution of the asteroid 99942 Apophis (2004 MN4) based on all 8185 total published observations over interval: 2004 March 15.10789 – 2021 May 20.79128. We used the A2 and A1, A2 non-gravitational parameters.

10:15 a.m.

 

Break

 

Wednesday, May 11, 2022

SESSION 2: POSSIBLE CONSEQUENCES ON APOPHIS FOR EARTH’S TORQUES OR TIDAL STRESS

10:30 a.m.  

All times are U.S. Central Daylight Time (CDT = GMT-5)

 

An Examination of Possible Physical Effects on Apophis, Resulting from Its Close Encounter.

 

Chairs:  David Trilling and Eri Tatsumi

 

Times

Authors (*Presenter)

Abstract Title and Summary

10:30 a.m.

DeMartini J. V. *  Kim Y.

Modeling Tidally-Induced Resurfacing on 99942 Apophis During its 2029 Close Encounter with Earth [#2024]
Simulations investigating the motion of surface grains due to Earth tides on Apophis. Our results may be important for indicating potential albedo changes or identifying regions of interest for surface grain motion for in-situ missions.

10:45 a.m.

Dinsmore J. T. *  de Wit J.

Constraining the Interiors of Asteroids Through Close Encounters [#2021]
In this presentation, we apply a new model for the precision of extracting density moments from close encounter spin pole data to Apophis. This model has been submitted for publication and will be available on arXiv before the conference.

11:00 a.m.

Ballouz R. -L. *  Barnouin O. S.  Zhang Y.  Walsh K. J.

Tidally-Induced Tumbling as a Mechanism for NEA Surface Refreshing [#2026]
Tidal Torques forces a Near-Earth Asteroid to Tumble. The tumbling varies the local surface slopes on the asteroid over an asteroid rotation period. This causes surface mobilization, refreshing the asteroid as it tumbles.

11:15 a.m.

 

Break

 

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Wednesday, May 11, 2022

SESSION 3: KNOWLEDGE OPPORTUNITIES FOR EARTH-BASED ASSETS

12:00 p.m.  

All times are U.S. Central Daylight Time (CDT = GMT-5)

 

Exploring the Unique Opportunities Available to Earth-Based Assets for the Science of Planetary Defense.

 

Chairs:  Julia de Leon and Mike Nolan

 

Times

Authors (*Presenter)

Abstract Title and Summary

12:00 p.m.

Reddy V. *  99 Co-Authors  [INVITED]

Apophis Planetary Defense Campaign [#2035]
Impacts due to near-Earth objects (~90% NEAs and ~10% comets) are natural hazards that could cause the extinction of humans, but one that can potentially be mitigated if the threat is detected with sufficient lead-time.

12:20 p.m.

Lee H.-J. *  Kim M.-J.  Lee Y.-J.  Marciniak A.  Urakawa S.  Kim D.-H.  Moon H.-K.  Choi Y.-J.  Kuroda D.  Okumura S.  Zoła S.  Chatelain J.  Lister T. A.  Gomez E.  Greenstreet S.  Pál A.  Szakáts R.  Erasmus N.  Lees R.  Janse van Rensburg P.  Ogłoza W.  Dróżdż M.  Żejmo M.  Kamiński K.  Kamińska M. K.  Duffard R.  Roh D.-G.  Yim H.-S.  Kim T.  Mottola S.  Yoshida F.  Reichart D. E.  Sonbas E.  Caton D. B.  Kaplan M.  Erece O.  Yang H.

Observation Campaign of (99942) Apophis in the 2021 Apparition [#2015]
We report the physical properties of 99942 Apophis obtained from our extensive observation campaign during its 2021 apparition. We refined its convex shape model and spin state and detected its different taxonomic signatures in the different phases.

12:35 p.m.

Licandro J. *  de Leon J.  Morate D.  Popescu M.  Medeiros H.  Serra-Ricart M.  Rodriguez-Alarcon M.  Tatsumi E.

The 2021 Apophis Close Approach Observational Campaign at the Canary Islands Observatories [#2029]
We present results of the IAC participation in the IAWN Apophis 2021 campaign. We did photometric, and spectroscopic observations using several telescopes in the Canary Islands observatories and discuss observations during 2029 close approach.

12:50 p.m.

Brozovic M. *  Benner L. A. M.  Naidu S. P.  Busch M. W.  Giorgini J. D.  Lazio J.  Hall T.

Radar Observations of 99942 Apophis in 2021 and Plans for 2029 [#2023]
In 2029, Apophis will be the strongest NEA radar target since radar observations began in the 1960s. The close flyby will enable a variety of radar techniques, and may include some that have never been applied to an asteroid previously.

1:05 p.m.

Haynes M. S. *  Elachi C.  Benner L. A. M.  Hallinan G.  Fenni I.  Davidsson B.  Brozovic M.  Bernhardt P.  Matthews J.  Lazio J.

Potential use of Ground-Based Long-Wavelength Radar for Interior Sensing of Apophis in 2029 [#2020]
We present an initial study on the potential use of ground-based long-wavelength radio/radar facilities for interior sensing of Apophis during its close encounter in 2029.

1:20 p.m.

Trilling D. *  van Belle G.  Erasmus N.  Lopez-Oquendo A.  McNeill A.  Milazzo M.  Howell S.  Furlan E.

Speckle Observations of Near-Earth Asteroids [#2032]
We are using speckle cameras at Gemini Observatory to obtain spatially resolved images of Near-Earth Asteroids (NEAs). I will present our current results and relevance to the Apophis encounter.

1:35 p.m.

Lam A. L. H. *  Margot J. L.  Whittaker E.  Myhrvold N. P.

Spin Periods of Near-Earth Asteroids from Infrared Lightcurves [#2017]
Spin period estimates can be obtained for a substantial fraction of NEAs observed by WISE, suggesting that observations with the NEO Surveyor mission have the potential to yield numerous NEA spin period estimates and inform planetary defense efforts.

1:50 p.m.

 

Break

 

Wednesday, May 11, 2022

DAY 1: INFORMAL ONLINE SOCIAL GATHERING AND DISCUSSION OF DAY 1 TOPICS

2:00 p.m.  

All times are U.S. Central Daylight Time (CDT = GMT-5)

 

Open Discussion of the Day 1 Topics and a Chance to Connect with Other Participants.

 

Chair:  Richard Binzel

 

Times

Presentation

2:00 p.m.

Informal Open Discussion of the Day 1 Topics and a Chance to Connect with Other Participants.

3:00 p.m.

End of Day 1

 

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Thursday, May 12, 2022

SESSION 4: KNOWLEDGE OPPORTUNITIES FOR IN SITU MISSIONS SMALL AND LARGE

9:00 a.m.  

All times are U.S. Central Daylight Time (CDT = GMT-5)

 

Mission Objectives and Instrumentation Concepts for Apophis and the Science of Planetary Defense.

 

Chairs:  Marina Brozovic and Paul Sava

 

Times

Authors (*Presenter)

Abstract Title and Summary

9:00 a.m.

Arakawa M. *  [INVITED]

Lessons Learned from Hayabusa II at Ryugu: Implications for the Regolith and Cohesion Properties for the Surface of Apophis [#2005]
This presentation briefly introduces the results of an impact experiment on asteroid Ryugu by Hayabusa2 mission by JAXA. The knowledge of Ryugu’s surface properties could be useful for the study of Apophis.

9:20 a.m.

Walsh K. J. *  [INVITED]

Lessons Learned From OSIRIS-REx at Bennu: Implications for the Regolith and Cohesion Properties for the Surface of Apophis [#2031]
What connections, if any, can be drawn between the sub-surface of these asteroids determined by spacecraft interaction (Itokawa, Ryugu and Bennu) and their basic physical properties and observed surface geology?

9:40 a.m.

Choi Y. J. *  [INVITED]

Rendezvous Mission to Apophis: Prospect for the Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute [#2037]

The Rendezvous Mission to Apophis (RMA) proposed by Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute (KASI) will make rendezvous with Apophis by a few months before the Earth encounter.

10:00 a.m.

 

Break

10:15 a.m.

Grundmann J. T. *  Lange C.  Ho T.-M.  Borella L.  Ceriotti M.  Chand S.  Cordero F.  Fexer S.  Grimm C. D.  Hendrikse J.  Herčík D.  Hérique A.  Hillebrandt M.  Kesseler L.  Laabs M.  Lange M.  Lichtenheldt R.  McInnes C. R.  Moore I.  Peloni A.  Plettemeier D.  Quantius D.  Seefeldt P.  Venditti F. C. F.  Virkki A. K.  Viavattene G.  Zander M.

Small Steps on Distant Roads — Nano Landing, Sailing, Going Together to Apophis [#2034]
The experience with fast-paced small spacecraft projects from the development of MASCOT and GOSSAMER-1 suggests that small spacecraft, integrated teams & deep networking are the way to go and arrive in time at Apophis, for a variety of mission and to stay.

10:30 a.m.

Blase W. P. *  Eubanks T. M.  Hibberd A.  Kennedy R. G. III  Hein A. M.

Sailing to Apophis [#2016]
We propose using laser-driven light-sail probes to implement quick-reaction missions to intercept and acquire data of PHOs approaching Earth, with an initial test of this capability using the upcoming close approach of Asteroid 99942 Apophis.

10:45 a.m.

Dissly R. W. *  Veto M. S.  Schindhelm R. N.  Chan D.  Mitchell S. J.

A Simple Mission Concept for Surface Imaging of Apophis Prior to Earth Encounter [#2033]
A rideshare mission of 1–2 spacecraft to a cis-lunar parking orbit can enable a low-cost solution for flyby reconnaissance of Apophis prior to Earth encounter. Flyby images can be compared to O-REx to provide robust surface change detection.

11:00 a.m.

Bell J. F. III  Rice J. W. Jr.  *  Park R. S.  Choi Y. -J.  Moon H. -K.  Kim M. -J.  Jeong M.  Moon B.  Gabriel T.  Thomas D. E.

The MILO Space Science Institute’s Apophis Pathfinder Smallsat Mission [#2030]
The MILO Space Science Institute, a collaboration between ASU and Lockheed Martin, is developing a smallsat flyby mission to Apophis well before its 2029 Earth encounter, including a proposed camera from the Korean Astronomy and Space Institute.

11:15 a.m.

Ballouz R. -L. *  Davis A. K.  Graninger D. M.  Berdis J. R.  Ernst C. M.  Barnouin O. S.  Cheng A.  Siddique F. E.

Apophis as a Test-Case for Flyby Reconnaissance Missions for Planetary Defense [#2027]
A mission concept for a small sat flyby of Apophis prior to its close encounter with Earth. The mission would treat the 2029 encounter as a simulation of fast reconnaissance to a hazardous asteroid, characterizing the asteroid for planetary defense.

11:30 a.m.

Amini R. B. *  Adell P. C.  Anderson R.  Bandyopadhyay S.  Davidsson B. J. R.  Esteve F.  Fesq L.  French A.  Gregoire Y.  Haynes M.  Henrique A.  Karimi R.  Keane J. T.  Lamy A.  Lorda L.  Mastrodemos N.  Miller R.  Pinède R.  Raymond C.  Takashi Y.  Virmontois C.

DROID: Accompanying and Characterizing Apophis Through Its 2029 Earth Closest Approach [#2012]
DROID is a three-spacecraft mission concept developed in collaboration between JPL and CNES. DROID would rendezvous with Apophis in Summer 2028 and measure its interior structure/ properties, shape/spin, morphology, and observe resolvable changes.

11:45 a.m.

DellaGiustina D. *  Golish D. R.  Guzewich S.  Moreau M.  Nolan M. C.  Polit A. T.  Simon A. A.  [INVITED]

OSIRIS-APEX: A Proposed OSIRIS-REx Extended Mission to Apophis [#2011]
We present an extended mission concept where the OSIRIS-REx spacecraft is sent to survey Apophis shortly after its tidal encounter with Earth in 2029.

12:05 p.m.

Nolan M. C. *  Golish D. R.  Moreau M. C.  Polit A. T.  Rivera-Valentín E. G.  Simon A. A.  DellaGiustina D.

OSIRIS-APEX Coordination with Observers and Missions [#2004]
Discussion of OSIRIS-APEX data products to complement ground-based observations and other potential spacecraft missions.

Topical Poster

Berdis J. R. *  Nair H.  Martin A. C.  Daly R. T.  Stickle A. M.  Ernst C. M.  Barnouin O. S.  Atchison J. A.  Rivkin A.

Assessing the Suitability of a Flyby for Planetary Defense Characterization [#2019]
Could a flyby mission to an asteroid like Apophis gather enough information to characterize its properties for planetary defense mitigation, especially in the event of a rapid launch when rendezvous is too challenging?

12:20 p.m.

 

Break

 

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Thursday, May 12, 2022

SESSION 5: INSTRUMENTATION AND IN SITU CHARACTERIZATION

12:30 p.m.  

All times are U.S. Central Daylight Time (CDT = GMT-5)

 

Instrumentation Concepts for the Characterization of Apophis.

 

Chairs:  Ron Ballouz and Erik Asphaug

 

Times

Authors (*Presenter)

Abstract Title and Summary

12:30 p.m.

Murdoch N. *  Garcia R.  Cadu A.  Wilhelm A.  Drilleau M.  Stott A.  Dehant V.  Bernauer F.  Schmelzbach C.  Stähler S.  Igel H.  Lecamp G.  Ferraoili L.  Karatekin O.  Lognonné P.  Giardini D.  Mimoun D.

Compact In-Situ Instruments for the Geophysical Exploration of Small Bodies [#2022]
We are developing two complementary in-situ geophysical payloads, designed specifically for small asteroid landers. Here we will discuss the science case, design, development status and expected performance of these instruments.

12:45 p.m.

Sava P. *  Asphaug E.

Interferometric Seismic Imaging of Asteroid 99942 Apophis [#2028]
Laser Doppler vibrometers could make remote seismic observations for 3D deep interior imaging of asteroid 99942 Apophis. Seismic interferometry eliminates the need for active seismic sources and exploits seismic noise from unknown and random sources.

1:00 p.m.

Kohout T. *  Kasparek T.  Palos M.  Chrbolkova K.  Penttilä A.  Wolfmayr M.  Korda D.  Näsilä A.  Harwot O.

Autonomous Image Coverage and Sharpness Detection for Fly-by Missions [#2018]
We present an autonomous in-flight image coverage and sharpness detection for download prioritization which can be utilized in an Apophis fly-by mission.

1:15 p.m.

Smith D. E. *  Sun X.  Mazarico E.  Cremons D. R.  Zuber M. T.  Neumann G. A.  Goossens S.  Barker M.  Mao D.  Head J. III

The Measurement of the Shape and Rotation of Apophis [#2013]
We present a Small All-range Lidar (SALi) presently in development and designed to measure the detailed shape and rotation of Apophis and other small bodies.

1:30 p.m.

Çelik O. *  Ballouz R. L.  Scheeres D. J.  Kawakatsu Y.

Material Dependency of Crater Scaling in Low-Speed Impacts Under Microgravity [#2006]
This study investigates crater-scaling relationship for low-speed cratering (at few cm/s) in small bodies. These may occur naturally (e.g., material ejection) or artificially (e.g., landing) and may contribute to the evolution of those bodies.

1:45 p.m.

 

Break

 

Thursday, May 12, 2022

SESSION 6: COMMUNICATING THE APOPHIS SCIENCE OPPORTUNITY

2:00 p.m.  

All times are U.S. Central Daylight Time (CDT = GMT-5)

 

Because Asteroid Approaches to Earth are Subject to Sensationalism, a Careful Approach to Communicating the Apophis Opportunity is in Order.

 

Chairs:  Jim Bell and Richard Binzel

 

Times

Authors (*Presenter)

Abstract Title and Summary

2:00 p.m.

Gunn D. *  Betts B. H.  Dreier C.  [INVITED]

Strategies to Effectively Communicate About Apophis [#2014]
The Apophis 2029 flyby is an opportunity to grow public interest, knowledge, and support for planetary defense. To effectively message about Apophis, the planetary defense community can apply fundamental communications principles and strategies.

2:20 p.m.

Daou D. *  [INVITED]

The International Year of Planetary Defense, 2029 [#2036]
The International Year of Planetary Defense 2029 (IYPD2029) will be a global awareness opportunity to protect Earth against possible hazards from Space.

2:40 p.m.

 

Break

 

Thursday, May 12, 2022

DAY 2: INFORMAL ONLINE SOCIAL GATHERING AND DISCUSSION OF DAY 2 TOPICS

2:45 p.m.  

All times are U.S. Central Daylight Time (CDT = GMT-5)

 

Open Discussion of Day 2 Topics and a Chance to Connect with Other Participants.

 

Chair:  Patrick Michel

 

Times

Authors (*Presenter)

Presentation

2:45 p.m.

 

Informal Open Discussion of Day 2 Topics and a Chance to Connect with Other Participants.

3:30 p.m.

Binzel R. P. *

Closing Remarks

3:35 p.m.

 

End of Workshop

 

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